Spending Bill Setbacks, the Omicron Variant, and Minimum Wage Increases

Build Back Better Act/Spending Bill:

November 29: Schumer: 'Goal' is to pass Biden spending bill before Christmas

The Senate Majority Leader on Monday said that he will bring President Biden's spending bill to the Senate floor once the parliamentarian finishes reviewing it and that it is his "Goal" to pass the roughly $2 trillion bill by the end of the year. Schumer's comments come after the House passed the climate and social spending bill before a week-long Thanksgiving break.

The bill faces hurdles in the Senate, where Democrats' 50-seat majority leaves them with no room for error and needing total unity plus Vice President Harris is in the chair to break a tie in order to both start debate on the bill and pass it.

Lawmakers are facing an end-of-year crunch, with a backed-up legislative to-do list including funding the government, raising the debt ceiling, and passing a mammoth defense bill that is currently stuck in limbo because of a stalemate on voting on potential changes.

Schumer didn't specify what week he'll try to bring the climate and social spending bill to the floor. Even as Schumer vowed on Monday to pass the bill by the end of the year, he doesn't yet have a lock on the 50 votes needed to bring it up and pass it.

Haven't said if they support the legislation, while other Senate Democrats acknowledge they haven't yet read the House bill.

November 29: Democrats Say Build Back Better Agenda Won't Repeat Obamacare Messaging Mistakes

Democrats say the Build Back Better agenda won't repeat Obamacare messaging mistakes The Build Back Better agenda is the largest expansion of the social safety net in decades.

Democrats in Congress are banking that President Biden's Build Back Better agenda - the largest expansion of the social safety net in decades that includes a wide range of programs to address health care, child care, elder care, and climate change - is the ticket to keeping their majorities in the House and Senate in the 2022 midterm elections.

Chris Carney thinks this time is different. He represented a red district in north-central Pennsylvania for two terms but was one of the several dozen Democrats to lose in 2010 after voting for the Affordable Care Act. He said back then Obamacare "Wasn't explained well." He said Democrats "Allowed the opposition to get out in front of the argument" and left them on the defensive.

Kristin Hawn, a Democratic strategist, and partner at ROKK Solutions worked for the moderate Blue Dog Coalition in 2010 and told NPR that explaining the component parts of the Build Back Better act as soon as possible is the way Democrats move beyond the messy process talk that has dominated the last few months.

Carney said, unlike Obamacare, the Build Back Better bill can be a potent political weapon because Democrats can show concrete ways they are changing peoples' lives for the better.

Democrats on Capitol Hill believe the Build Back Better agenda can also turn into a political plus, and some argue it already has with things that help people now like the child tax credit.

November 28: Key senators to watch on Democrats' social spending bill

All eyes will be on the Senate following the Thanksgiving break, as Democrats in the chamber seek to pass a massive social spending and climate package that is a key component of President Biden’s economic agenda.

The House passed a version of the package shortly before Thanksgiving and the Senate is expected to take up the legislation after the holiday break. Lawmakers are hoping to get a bill to Biden’s desk by the end of the year.

But Senate Democrats face challenges in passing the measure. They will need to make changes to the House bill in order to accommodate the priorities of both moderates and progressives. They may also have to make some changes to the bill in order to comply with the rules for the budget reconciliation process, which Democrats are using to prevent a Republican filibuster.

Additionally, Senate Democrats will have to withstand criticisms from Republicans who are seeking to sink the bill. Here are five key senators to watch in the debate on the social-spending bill: Senator Schumer, Senator Manchin, Senator Sinema, Senator Sanders, and Senator McConnel.

Senator Schumer will need to juggle the spending bill with other legislative agenda items, such as the annual defense policy bill, legislation to prevent a government shutdown, and legislation to raise the debt ceiling.

Senator Manchin, a prominent centrist, has been a key player in negotiations over the legislation and has already signaled that he has concerns with portions of the House bill.

The House bill included four weeks of paid family leave despite the fact that Manchin has expressed resistance to including that item in the spending package.

In a recent interview with The Washington Post, Sinema pointed out that there are differences between the House bill and a White House framework for the spending package released in late October.

Sanders, a prominent progressive and chair of the Senate Budget Committee, said after the bill passed the House that he wants the Senate to “strengthen” the measure in areas including tax increases on the wealthy, prescription drugs, Medicare expansion, and climate.

McConnell will play a leading role in Republicans' efforts to attack the spending bill.

Covid-19 and Its Impact:

November 30: Covid-19 Variant Omicron Threatens U.S., Global Economies

The global economy could suffer a modest blow from the Omicron variant of Covid-19, though the scale of damage will hinge on the potency of the strain itself, economists say.

Scientists and vaccine makers are investigating Omicron, a Covid-19 variant with around 50 mutations, which has been detected in many countries after spreading in southern Africa.

Several economists said it was too early to tell what effect the Omicron variant would have on the Fed's tapering of bond purchases and interest-rate plans.

The U.K., France, Italy, Germany, and the Netherlands have halted flights from a number of southern African countries where the new variant is thought to be widespread. The U.K. reimposed masking requirements on public transport, stores, and other enclosed spaces after identifying multiple cases of Omicron in England and Scotland.

"If Omicron is indeed the dreaded new variant which is more transmissible and better able to escape current immune responses than Delta, it would hit the global economy and especially continental Europe at a bad time," said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Germany's Berenberg Bank.

The exception is China, where the emergence of Omicron will likely reinforce Beijing's commitment to its strict approach, said Craig Botham, chief China economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics in London.

November 29: Stocks rebound after omicron emergence shook the market

Stocks rebounded Monday morning and shook off some of the heavy losses driven by the emergence of the omicron variant of coronavirus.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened Monday with a gain of 368 points, rising almost 1.1 percent after closing Friday with a loss of 905 points. The S&P 500 index was up 1.5 percent and the Nasdaq composite was up 1.2 percent after closing with losses of 2.3 percent and 2.2 percent respectively.

The stock market suffered its worst day of losses since October 2022 last week on Friday after officials at the World Health Organization identified a new, highly transmissible variant of COVID-19 as a “variant of concern.” Health experts say that while the omicron variant appears to be more infectious than previous variants, they do not yet know if it causes more serious disease or if it is more resistant to COVID-19 vaccines.

Stocks in sectors heavily affected by the pandemic led much of Monday’s rebound after plunging on Friday. Shares of cruise lines, banks, and financial services companies, technology firms, manufacturers, hotels, and travel companies rose sharply Monday morning, far exceeding losses taken by some electronic entertainment and commerce companies.

Debt-Ceiling:

November 30: Schumer: 'Good conversation' with McConnell on debt hike

Senate Majority Leader said he and Senate Minority Leader had a "Good conversation" about raising the debt ceiling and that talks are ongoing as Congress barrels toward a debt cliff.

Schumer, speaking on the Senate floor, said Congress needed to deal with the debt ceiling "Soon," after the Treasury Secretary warned lawmakers that they have until Dec. 15 to raise the nation's borrowing limit.

"I recently had a good conversation with the Republican leader about this issue, and I expect to continue those talks on achieving a bipartisan solution to addressing the debt limit," Schumer said.

In addition to raising the debt ceiling, Congress also needs to fund the government and figure out a path forward for a sweeping defense bill. Schumer hasn't yet outlined what the path forward is on the debt ceiling.

Democrats cut a deal with Republicans earlier this year on a short-term debt hike. Republicans are pushing Democrats to raise the debt ceiling on their own through reconciliation, a budget process that lets them avoid the filibuster.

November 28: Shutdown, Debt Ceiling Decisions Await Democrats And Republicans As They Return

The clock is ticking for congressional Democrats this week as they return to Washington, where they hope to advance President Biden's economic agenda, authorize key defense programs, and resolve a slew of urgent fiscal deadlines with little time left in the year.

The flurry of policy battles set the stage for a politically discordant December on Capitol Hill at a moment when tensions between Democrats and Republicans are running high, and fears are resurfacing nationwide about a potential setback in the coronavirus pandemic.

Then Democrats and Republicans may have less than two weeks to avert a second crisis. The tensions could flash especially in the waning hours of this year, as Democrats also seek to approve a roughly $2 trillion package to overhaul the country's health care, education, climate, immigration, and tax laws, a sprawling effort backed by Biden that Republicans vehemently oppose.

In the Senate, Democrats, and Republicans this week hope to finalize a roughly $768 billion annual measure to authorize key defense programs, sorting through hundreds of amendments, including an attempt to repeal a resolution that permitted the Iraq War.

Democrats including Rep. Rosa L. DeLauro, the leader of the House Appropriations Committee, have sought only a brief extension in an attempt to keep up the pressure on Republicans to come to a deal on a dozen longer-term spending proposals covering major federal operations. Otherwise, Republicans have opposed Biden's increases and tried to pump more money into defense than Democrats seek.

Global Trade:

November 27: American whiskey makers set their sights on Europe as Trump-era tariffs are lifted

American whiskey makers set their sights on Europe as Trump-era tariffs are lifted The 25% tariff on U.S. whiskey will be removed in January. Amir Peay had high hopes when he salvaged the abandoned 140-year-old James E. Pepper Distillery near the heart of Lexington, Kentucky. Peay's hopes were dashed a few months later, as the European Union imposed tariffs on American whiskey.

The U.S. and European Union announced a trade agreement last month that effectively lifts the 25-percent tariffs on American whiskey come January. The tariffs, which had been levied as part of a growing trade dispute between the Trump administration and the E.U. over steel and aluminum, also targeted American exports such as motorcycles and denim and stymied international growth for the burgeoning American whiskey industry.

Europe is a major importer of American spirits, yet distillers saw a 53% decline in American whiskey exports to the U.K. and a 37% decline to the E.U. while the tariffs were in place, resulting in over $300 million in lost revenue, according to the Distilled Spirits Council.

The U.K. is no longer part of the E.U., thanks to Brexit, and has yet to remove its tariffs on American whiskey.

Yet Amir Peay in Lexington is optimistic a deal will be struck and demand for U.S. whiskey will increase. "I'm not sure about 2022, but I am confident that 2023 and beyond... It's a very bright future for American whiskey in Europe."

Upcoming Policy News:

November 22: $15 minimum wage for federal contractors will take effect on Jan. 30.

Employees of federal contractors will make at least $15 per hour under a final rule that the Labor Department announced Monday, providing a likely wage increase for over 300,000 workers, according to administration estimates.

The wage floor will affect contracts that are executed or extended beginning on Jan. 30, 2022. The current minimum wage for contractors is $10.95 under a rule enacted by the Obama administration in 2014 and is scheduled to rise to $11.25 on Jan. 1.

Paul Light, an expert on the federal workforce at New York University, has estimated that five million people work for employers that have federal contracts, including security guards, food workers, janitors, and call center workers, but most already make more than $15 per hour.

Mr. Biden's announcement came amid a series of pro-labor moves by the administration, which included reversing Trump-era rules softening worker protections, and enacting legislation that allocated tens of billions of dollars to strengthen union pension funds.

Administration officials said they did not expect the minimum wage increase to result in significant job losses or cost increases, contending that the higher wage would improve productivity and reduce turnover, providing employers and the government with greater value. The federal minimum wage remains $7.25 per hour, though many cities and states have laws setting their wage floors substantially higher.

For Fun:

A Japanese robot cafe shows how avatars can foster human connection

Tokyo-based DAWN, or Diverse Avatar Working Network, is a cafe staffed by robots operated remotely by people with severe physical disabilities like amyotrophic lateral sclerosis also known as Lou Gehrig's disease.

Judges praised DAWN for developing "Alter-ego robots" that remove obstacles to work.

In its press statement, the committee said it expects "The cafe will serve as a starting point for further expansion of contact between people with various disabilities who want work, companies, and consumers."

The challenge of designing solutions for homebound populations is particularly acute in Japan, where over a quarter of the population is unable to work due to physical disability, mental illness, or age.

In February, prime minister Yoshihide Suga appointed the country's first "Minister of loneliness," a cabinet-level official tasked with addressing social isolation and the spike in suicide among Japanese female workers in 2020. Kentaro Yoshifuji, CEO of Ory Laboratory, the tech start-up behind DAWN, suggests that the cafe's teleworking model could be a path to employment for people saddled with child care and homeschooling duties or people who, for health reasons, can't be in public during the covid-19 pandemic.

Beyond the cafe, the Ory Laboratory's robots also work as guides and greeters at department stores, transport stations, and corporate offices throughout Japan where many employers are turning to robotics and automation to bridge gaps in the labor force.

A 2018 report published by the International Monetary Fund ranks Japan among the "Most robot-integrated economies in the world in terms of robot density," with about three robots per human worker in the manufacturing sector.