Rising Interest Rates, Gas Tax Holiday, and the CHIPS Act

Economic News/Policy: 

June 20: Biden, after talking with Larry Summers, says recession not inevitable

President Biden said on Monday that he had spoken with former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers and that he still did not think a recession was inevitable.

"No, I don't think it is," Biden said when asked if a recession is more likely than ever. "I was talking to Larry Summers this morning and there's nothing inevitable about a recession."

The president, while talking to reporters in Rehoboth Beach, Del., pointed to efforts to cut health care costs for Americans and tax reform as steps to combat inflation.

Biden is essentially pushing back at remarks Summers made the previous day.

Summers said Sunday that his "Best guess" is there will be a recession in the U.S. "I base that on the fact that we haven't had a situation like the present with inflation above 4 percent and unemployment beyond 4 percent without a recession following within a year or two," Summers told NBC's Chuck Todd on "Meet the Press."

Biden on Thursday said that a recession was not inevitable in the wake of the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates at the quickest pace in nearly 30 years.

June 20: Economists see 44 percent chance of a recession in next year: WSJ survey

The probability of the U.S. hitting a recession within the next year is about 44 percent, according to a new Wall Street Journal survey of leading economists. That's the highest probability for a recession in the next year since the newspaper began asking the question in 2005, the Journal noted.

Before the 2007 to 2009 recession, economists assigned a 38 percent probability of a recession. Before the 2020 recession, they gave the economy a 28 percent probability of hitting a significant economic downturn.

Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press" that, based on historical trends, the economy will likely hit a recession by the end of the year.

Recession fears have spread rapidly amid soaring inflation, disrupted supply chains, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate spike to 1.75 percent, the fastest rate increase seen in 30 years. The 53 economists in the Wall Street Journal survey - who were polled from June 16 to June 17, after the most recent interest rate hike - said they expect the Fed to raise interest rates to 3.3 percent by the end of the year.

June 19: Economy Week Ahead: Housing Blues

TUESDAY: The once red-hot U.S. housing market has slowed drastically as rising mortgage rates kept many home buyers on the sidelines. That has caused sales to slow. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect that existing-home sales declined 3.6% in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.41 million. That would be the fourth straight month of declines.

THURSDAY: Initial claims for unemployment, a proxy for layoffs, are one of the earliest indications of trouble in the labor market. Claims have been slowly ticking up since March, although they remain at a historically low level. Economists expect initial claims to fall slightly to 225,000 for the week ended June 18.

An initial June reading on output in the manufacturing and services sectors should offer a clue as to whether the U.S. economy is slowing down. Economists expect the S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers index for June to fall to 56.1 from 57. They see the services index rising slightly to 53.5 from 53.4.

FRIDAY: An initial reading of June consumer sentiment hit 50.2, its lowest level ever recorded, as households grappled with rising gas prices and inflation. Economists don’t expect that dismal number to change in the final reading.

June 19: Biden team pushes back on recession fears

Senior Biden administration officials on Sunday pushed back on some economists' projections of an impending recession, arguing that it is possible to curb inflation without causing a major economic slowdown.

“It’s President Biden’s top priority to bring it down, and [Federal Reserve] Chair [Jerome] Powell has said that his goal is to bring inflation down while maintaining a strong labor market,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Sunday. "That's going to take skill and luck, but I believe it's possible. I don't think a recession is inevitable."

“Bank balances are high,” Yellen said. “It’s clear that most consumers, even lower-income households, continue to have buffer stocks of savings that will enable them to maintain spending.”

That sentiment was shared by National Economic Council Director Brian Deese, who also pointed to low proportions of people missing payments on mortgages and credit cards.

"Not only is a recession not inevitable, but I think that a lot of people are underestimating those strengths and the resilience of the American economy," Deese said during an appearance on CBS's "Face the Nation."

Biden said one day after the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by the largest amount in nearly 30 years that a recession was "Not inevitable."

Powell has indicated the central bank will continue raising interest rates to restrain the economy, with Fed officials expecting to hike interest rates by another 2 percentage points by the end of the year, which would be the highest since the lead-up to the 2007-2008 financial crisis and recession.

Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press" that he predicts a recession by the end of next year based on historical trends. Many experts predicting a recession point to supply-side challenges beyond the Fed's control, including Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has sent food and fuel prices soaring.

June 19: Inflation taking a bite out of new infrastructure projects

Inflation is taking a toll on infrastructure projects across the U.S., driving up costs so much that state and local officials are postponing projects, scaling back others, and reprioritizing their needs.

“Those dollars are essentially evaporating,” said Jim Tymon, executive director of the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. "The cost of those projects is going up by 20%, by 30%, and just wiping out that increase from the federal government that they were so excited about earlier in the year."

In addition to roads, the federal infrastructure bill includes billions of dollars for water projects, railways, airports, broadband internet, electric grids, and green-energy projects over the coming years.

"They are borrowing more money so they can spend more money, which is driving inflation, which is cutting down on the projects that they're actually wanting to do," said Graves, a Missouri Republican who voted against the infrastructure bill.

White House senior adviser Mitch Landrieu said the infrastructure law "Actually positions us for lowering costs for families in the short- and long-term." He pointed, among other things, to made-in-America requirements for steel, iron, and other construction materials that could strengthen supply chains and thus lower costs.

Four years ago, a new 14-gate terminal was projected to cost about $434 million and be open by 2026. So officials are planning to break the project into phases, building just five new gates by 2026 at a cost of $411 million.

June 18: How much does Biden’s $1.9T bill have to do with inflation?

The sweeping $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief bill is also at the center of a debate over raging inflation, with Republicans pointing the finger at Biden and his policies. Economists' estimates of how much the COVID-19 relief package contributed to inflation vary.

Furman said the rescue plan caused between 1 and 4 percentage points of inflation last year. "If you look at the inflation over the last four or five months, there's no doubt that the price increases caused by [Russian] President [Vladimir] Putin are playing a much bigger role at this stage and the rescue plan is playing a fading role," he said.

The partisan blame game over inflation has intensified as costs and particularly gas prices have continued to rise, despite the Federal Reserve and top White House officials insisting early last year that inflation would be "Transitory."

"We're seeing high inflation in almost all developed countries around the world, and they have very different fiscal policies, so it can't be the case that the bulk of the inflation that we are experiencing reflects the impact of the ARP," Yellen told the Senate Finance Committee earlier this month in response to questioning from Sen. Steve Daines.

In an interview with The Associated Press on Thursday, Biden insisted there was "Zero evidence" for Republicans' claim that his pandemic stimulus bill caused inflation.

 June 18: Rising Inflation and Interest Rates Heap Pressure on Emerging Markets

Slowing growth, scorching inflation, and rising U.S. interest rates are intensifying a squeeze on emerging-market finances and stoking concern over a fully-fledged debt crisis in low- and middle-income countries. Yields on the long-term debt of 23 countries are currently 8 percentage points or more above long-term U.S. Treasury yields, a sign of financial distress, up from 16 at the beginning of the year.

Debt is considered distressed when a country is unable to fulfill its financial obligations and debt restructuring is required.

India's debt increased 9%, while Pakistan's rose 23%. Egypt's debt swelled by 13%, and Peru's rose 22%. Rising interest rates, weakening growth and soaring prices tend to sap government revenue and make it harder for poorer countries to service their loans. Some countries face extra difficulties from foreign-currency debt, which can be harder to repay when the value of domestic currencies falls, and variable-rate debt, since interest payments will rise as rates go up.

Countries with more than 50% of their external debt on variable rates include Papua New Guinea, Fiji, and Zambia, World Bank data shows.

Rebeca Grynspan, secretary-general of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, this month urged the Group of 20 major economies to reinstate an initiative to allow developing countries to suspend debt servicing, which expired at the end of 2021 while pushing debt maturities back by two to five years to ease the burden of payments.

June 17: Stocks closed mixed as S&P suffers worst week since March 2020

The stock market closed with mixed gains Friday to close out a brutal week for the market and the worst weekly loss for the S&P 500 index since March 2020. The S&P ended Friday with a gain of 0.2 percent on the day but down nearly 4.3 percent on the week.

The Nasdaq composite rose 1.4 percent to end with a weekly loss of 1.7 percent, and Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 38 points to close the week with a loss of 4 percent. The Dow also closed below 30,000 points Thursday for the first time since late 2020.

Stocks whipsawed throughout the week in anticipation of and reaction to the Federal Reserve's first 0.75 percentage point interest rate hike since 1994.

Stocks plunged again Thursday before hitting a plateau into a three-day weekend, with the market closed Monday in observance of Juneteenth. As borrowing costs throughout the economy increase, consumers and businesses tend to spend less money and invest less in riskier assets like stocks and other securities.

June 16: U.S. Economic Growth Shows Signs of Slipping

The U.S. economy is starting to slow under the combined weight of soaring inflation and climbing interest rates—including the highest mortgage rates since 2008.

Recent reports show sharp declines in key sectors, raising the prospects of a stalled economic recovery and possibly a recession. Home construction across the U.S. fell sharply in May, the Commerce Department said Thursday. Factories in the mid-Atlantic region reduced activity for the first time in two years this month, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said. And Americans broadly cut spending at retailers for the first time this year in May, the Commerce Department said earlier this week.

"There really is no road map here," said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at the New York consulting firm Maria Fiorini Ramirez, Inc. "Nobody knows. Anybody that pretends they know is just telling you a story." The economy's loss of momentum has prompted discussion about whether it will lead to a recession.

Many economists loosely define a recession as two consecutive quarters of falling output, though policymakers and news organizations defer to a nonprofit academic group called the National Bureau of Economic Research to officially declare recessions.

The NBER typically waits for many months after the fact to identify official recession dates, based on an analysis of a range of data including employment, output, retail sales, and household income. The most recent recession, early in the pandemic, lasted two months, the group said last year.

WSJ's Anna Hirtenstein looks at how rising interest rates over high inflation, market selloffs, and recession risks challenge the growth of America's workforce. Some economists think a recession has already arrived.

Employers have added an average of 488,000 jobs a month in the first five months of 2022, far above the historical average, separate Labor Department data show, though job gains slowed to 390,000 in May. The unemployment rate held at a 3.6% in May, close to the half-century low level it reached in 2020 before the pandemic sent the economy into a deep but short recession.

June 16: Wall Street shudders as focus returns to recession risks.

Stocks tumbled, with the S&P 500 falling further into the bear market territory, as investors focused on the threat that inflation and higher interest rates pose to the economy. The Fed's efforts to fight it might, at least in the short term, prove even worse: By raising rates, the Fed hopes to cool demand enough to tamp down inflation - but the risk is that it does too much, tipping the economy into a recession.

Mr. Powell on Wednesday argued, as he has in the past, that the Fed can bring down inflation without causing a recession, although he acknowledged that its ability to do so depends on factors that are outside its control, such as gas prices, the pandemic and the war in Ukraine.

Analysts say the stock market isn't likely to regain its footing until there are clear signs that inflation is starting to come under control, which in turn would take pressure off the Fed to raise rates quickly.

The last time the Fed had to raise rates rapidly to control inflation, in the late 1970s and early 1980s, it caused what was at the time the worst recession since the Great Depression.

June 15: The Fed Interest Rate Hike Means For Consumers

The Federal Reserve, the nation's central bank, is charged with keeping prices stable and with keeping unemployment low. The bank has been moving to tackle the greatest run-up in prices in four decades. Many fear that their efforts to curb inflation have come too late.

The central bank announced on Wednesday that it is raising interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point in an attempt to temper record inflation. The bank's aim is that inflation will stabilize over time without slowing economic growth too much and forcing job losses.

Less rosy scenarios may materialize, including an economy defined by surging prices and clamped growth. Three years into the pandemic and the unfolding economic turmoil it brought, the Fed is at another crucial turning point.

June 15: Fed hikes rates by 75 basis points for the first time since 1994

The Federal Open Market Committee, the panel of Fed officials responsible for setting interest rates, said it would raise the bank's baseline interest rate range to 1.5 to 1.75 percent, an increase of 0.75 percentage points. It is the first 0.75 percentage point rate hike issued by the Fed since 1994.

The Fed was already on track to raise interest rates by 0.5 percentage points in June following an identical hike in May and a 0.25 percentage point hike in March.

The CME Group FedWatch tool, which monitors where futures tied to the Fed's baseline interest rate range are trading, gave a 97 percent chance on Tuesday of a 75 basis point interest rate hike.

The Fed would need to raise interest rates by at least 2 percentage points to end the year at that level. As the Fed hikes rates, interest rates on those products also rise and pin consumers down with higher borrowing costs. When Treasury bond yields rise as the Fed hikes rates, banks and lenders set their interest rates higher accordingly.

June 15: Fed Takes Aggressive Action in Inflation Fight

The rate increase was the central bank's biggest since 1994 and could be followed by a similarly sized move next month, suggested Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, underscoring just how much America's unexpectedly stubborn price gains are unsettling Fed officials. Mr. Powell acknowledged that it was becoming increasingly difficult for the Fed to slow inflation without causing a recession as outside forces, including the war in Ukraine and factory shutdowns in China, threaten to curb the supply of goods and commodities like oil.

"We're not trying to induce a recession right now, let's be clear about that," Mr. Powell said, explaining that the Fed still wants to reduce inflation to its 2 percent goal while keeping the labor market strong - outcome economists call a "Soft landing."

The latest move set the Fed's policy rate in a range of 1.50 percent to 1.75 percent, and more rate increases are to come.

The Fed had lifted rates by a quaquarter-point March and half a point in May and had signaled that it expected to continue that pace in June and July. But central bankers have received a spate of bad news on inflation in recent days. "The Fed is becoming a bit more realistic about how difficult it is going to be to lower inflation without inflicting damage on the labor market," said Sarah House, a senior economist at Wells Fargo.

The White House has been emphasizing that the Fed plays the key role in bringing down inflation, even as the Biden administration does what it can to reduce some costs for beleaguered consumers and urges companies to improve gas supply.

June 15: New shipping legislation targets supply chain bottleneck

The administration is hoping the law, which is designed to slash the bargaining power of container shipping companies and their industry alliances, will address a critical bottleneck in global supply chains - an issue economists widely believe is a key factor driving inflation. Supply chains over the last few decades have been pared down to minimize costs associated with storage, inventory, and labor.

"Because we've had reliable and affordable global container shipping, people say, 'OK, we'll just build these global supply chains based on lean methodologies, so we'll just have less inventory, less cash tied up, and we'll have fewer mistakes in the pipeline,'" Willy C. Shih, a professor of management and operations at the Harvard Business School, said in an interview.

"The rapid decay of a decades-old model of supply chain reliability and efficiency is a key feature of CEO agendas," management consultant Knut Alicke and others wrote in a May note for McKinsey & Co. "If a crisis on the scale of the pandemic occurs, the absence of back stock of inventory or materials can seriously threaten supply chains. Many of today's most pressing supply shortages occur in supplier sub-tiers where manufacturers have little visibility."

So while boosted inventory may be a popular concept in supply chain management in the short term, the mark-downs and stockroom purges associated with a well-fortified supply chain may not fundamentally be in line with profit maximization. Whether Congress's new shipping law will bring down prices for consumers, while reassuring big businesses that container shipping is preferable to pipeline restructuring, will play out over time.

“We are appalled by the continued mischaracterization of the industry by U.S. government representatives, and concerned about the disconnect between hard data and inflammatory rhetoric,” the World Shipping Council, an industry trade group, said in a Monday statement, following the passage of the bill.  

"The 22 international carriers that serve the American people, industry, and government on the Asia-United States trade are part of the global supply chain that has built this country. The increased rate levels we have seen over the past years are a function of demand outstripping supply and landside congestion, exacerbated by pandemic-related disruption," the group said.

Global shipping aside, trade between Asia and the U.S. is what keeps so many low-cost goods stocked on U.S. shelves, according to Shih.

Environmental and Energy Policy and News:

June 20: Biden Says Decision On Gas Tax Holiday Could Come As Soon As This Week

President Biden told reporters Monday that he hopes to decide on a potential gas tax holiday "By the end of the week." Under a gas tax holiday, all taxes on the price of gas would be temporarily removed, offering buyers some relief.

Suspending the tax on gas prices would require congressional action, putting the fate of the holiday in the hands of an equally divided Senate. Republicans have brushed off gas tax holidays as political stunts, arguing instead for new regulations that would open the door to more drilling.

New York, Florida, Georgia, and Connecticut have implemented gas tax holidays, while Illinois delayed a planned increase of its tax rate.

Granholm, on Sunday, also agreed that a tax holiday is a possibility but reminded viewers that suspending the gas tax could affect the nation's infrastructure.

On Monday, the president also appeared to suggest that his administration is considering sending Americans gas rebate cards, which would temporarily help cover the cost of gas for millions of people.

June 17: Democrat to Biden: Don’t suspend the gas tax

Rep. Earl Blumenauer asked President Biden to oppose a suspension of the federal gas tax in a letter Thursday, warning of "Severe unintended consequences" for infrastructure. Biden is coming under pressure from other Democrats to embrace a gas tax holiday, and The Hill reported this week that the idea is gaining steam.

Blumenauer cited a market analysis by the Transportation Investment Advocacy Center indicating that over the past decade, only about 18 percent of state gas tax cuts have been passed down to consumers, with the bulk of the changes in revenue returning to oil and gas companies themselves.

"While there is undoubtedly a need to provide American consumers relief from spiking costs, there is no guarantee a gas tax suspension would reduce prices at the pump or stem the broader inflation affecting the global economy, and it may only increase oil companies' bottom lines," Blumenauer wrote.

Blumenauer wrote that the provisions of the bipartisan infrastructure bill Biden signed into law at the end of 2021 assume federal gas tax revenues remain the same.

A number of states have responded to record gas prices with moratoriums on state gas taxes, including Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, and New York. Several Democratic governors have asked Biden to consider a federal gas tax holiday, and the president's economic team has reportedly held talks on the matter over the past week.

June 15: Biden presses oil companies to boost gasoline supply

President Biden is demanding top oil executives boost the supply of gasoline, diesel, and other refined products on the market to combat rising prices. Biden told the executives in a letter this week that historically high-profit margins for refining oil into gasoline and diesel were "Not acceptable" during a time of war and called on the companies to work with his administration to address price increases caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, according to copies of the letter shared with The Hill.

"There is no question that Vladimir Putin is principally responsible for the intense financial pain the American people and their families are bearing. But amid a war that has railed the gasoline prices more than $1.70 per gallon, historically high refinery profit margins are worsening the pain," Biden wrote in the letter, copies of which were sent to executives at Exxon Mobil, Shell, Valero, Marathon, Phillips 66, BP and Chevron.

Biden also asked the companies to submit "An explanation of any reduction of your refining capacity since 2020" to Granholm as well as any proposals to address current challenges with supply, price, and refining capacity.

The letter represents the latest effort by Biden to address record-high gasoline prices, which topped $5 per gallon on average nationally over the weekend.

Chevron spokesperson Bill Turenne said the company understands concerns about elevated fuel prices and is working to expand production by 15 percent this year while criticizing the Biden administration's energy policies. In a statement responding to Biden's letter, Exxon Mobil suggested the federal government waive the Jones Act and certain fuel requirements to boost supplies over the short term and to streamline approval for pipelines, and support domestic investment in the long term.

June 15: Big Oil windfall tax proponents ‘encouraged’ by Biden letter

Congressional Democrats who have pushed for a windfall profits tax on oil companies said Wednesday that they're encouraged by similar rhetoric coming from President Biden.

"The president has written a strong letter recently to the oil executives and become more vocal on the issue," Khanna added.

In a letter this week, Biden called on oil executives to increase the production of refined products, saying the industry's historically high profits are "Worsening the pain" caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine to energy markets. Khanna called the idea of a windfall profits tax "Common sense" and a "Mainstream, reasonable proposal." Although the progressive wing of the Democratic Party has spearheaded the proposals, he noted that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservative government has imposed a similar tax in the United Kingdom.

Birx to testify publicly in Congress about Trump pandemic response 26 Democrats call on Biden to expand vaccine cooperation with Cuba. Congressional Democrats have repeatedly called for a windfall profits tax as gas prices have soared. The Biden administration has pointed to several factors outside its direct control, including the war in Ukraine and oil companies' failure to produce on 9,000 leases.

June 15: White House scrambles to solve gas price surge

The White House is scrambling to help solve a massive surge in gas prices that increasingly is seen as a weight that could leave Democrats suffering a rout in this fall's midterm elections. The White House is also flirting with endorsing a federal gas tax holiday while readying for a controversial summit with Saudi Arabia where the global fuel supply is expected to be a major point of discussion.

Robert Wolf, the former CEO of UBS Americas who served as an economic adviser to former President Obama, was spotted at the White House on Wednesday two days after The Hill wrote he was in support of the gas tax holiday.

In a sign of a more aggressive approach to the crisis, the White House on Wednesday released a letter that Biden sent to seven major oil executives chiding them for making large profits amid the spike in gas prices and demanding they take actions to boost the supply of gasoline, diesel, and other refined products on the market to help ease the burden on American consumers.

Signaling the urgency facing the administration, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre kicked off Wednesday's briefing by talking about Biden's efforts to lower gas prices, including ordering the largest-ever release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve earlier this year and allowing sales of higher-ethanol gasoline during the summer.

The Biden administration has limited options when it comes to assuaging high gas prices and inflation more broadly.

Saudi Arabia is the informal leader of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and a major oil producer, and the administration has tried to persuade the country to pump more oil to help alleviate gas prices.

June 14: Explosion at Texas terminal injects uncertainty into the global energy market

Last week's explosion at Texas natural gas terminal Freeport LNG has injected further chaos into international energy markets as the U.S. has stepped up to replace Russian gas exports to Europe. Experts said Friday that while the facility is offline, it will likely keep about 1.33 billion cubic feet of liquefied natural gas per day off the market for the next three weeks.

This "Will contribute to a possible tightening of the market as it coincides with some Asian and South American buyers coming to market for volumes," said Eugene Kim, research director for American Gas at the energy consulting firm Wood Mackenzie.

The incident, which remains under investigation, comes at a pivotal moment for U.S. natural gas production in the international market.

In a commentary after the explosion, energy analysis firm Rystad Energy noted that LNG exports from the Freeport facility were already down from 2 to 1.35 bcf by Friday morning, even before the shutdown impacted the numbers. Rystad analysts added that the explosion and resultant shutdown indicate the risk factors and unpredictability of the market.

"The United States is exporting every molecule of natural gas we possibly can," Samantha Gross, director of the Brookings Institution's Energy Security and Climate Initiative, told The Hill in April.

ICYMI: 

June 17: With Funding Stalled, Chip Makers Warn Congress the U.S. Is Lagging

Top chip makers are pressuring Congress to quickly pass a measure providing more than $52 billion for companies that build semiconductor factories in the United States, privately warning lawmakers that failure to do so could prompt them to take their manufacturing plants elsewhere.

The bill, known as the CHIPS Act, would deliver semiconductor giants a remarkable injection of government support to build up America's manufacturing and technological edge amid a global shortage of critical technology. The lobbying efforts have prompted lawmakers to consider passing the chips bill as part of a narrower measure, dropping the other parts of the legislation that are still in dispute.

“The cost differential that we see today between the United States and other locations around the world makes it difficult to expand memory manufacturing,” Manish Bhatia, the executive vice president of global operations at Micron said. "We would really like to see the CHIPS Act and the investment tax credits pass in the near term - in the next few weeks or before the summer recess - so we can make our manufacturing decisions with confidence."

John Neuffer, the chief executive of the Semiconductor Industry Association, said the industry had been under "Withering pressure" to build new manufacturing facilities to respond to the explosion of demand for chips.

Some U.S. state governments do offer to fund court chip manufacturers, but the federal government "Is not in the game," he added. Nearly all of the outstanding provisions causing the delay to have little or nothing to do with the chips or manufacturing components.

June 14: COVID-19 hits a US plateau: Why aren’t cases going up or down?

Coronavirus cases in the U.S. have hit a plateau of around 100,000 new cases per day with little indication of whether they will rise or fall in the coming weeks and months of summer. Cases began to hover at the 100,000 per day mark in mid-May. Previous waves in the U.S. have typically declined a few days after reaching a peak, but the current plateau has now lasted more than a month.

For the past few weeks, cases have undulated only slightly up and down and public health experts say this trend may be indicative of what we can expect going forward.

The main explanation for why cases aren't rising higher or falling from their peak, as in previous waves, is the level of vaccinations in the country. While the national average case rate appears to be traveling along a straight path, the spread of COVID-19 cases varies across different regions of the country.

"In the Northeast, the areas where the cases have been relatively high, they're decreasing - not falling fast but they are decreasing. In the West, in parts of the South and mountain states cases are increasing," Toner said.

An increase in cases stemming from these strains has been observed in numerous European Union countries and the U.S., indicating that they may soon become the dominant variants.

June 14: Why a bipartisan data privacy proposal faces an uphill battle

A new bipartisan data privacy proposal is facing an uphill battle amid opposition from privacy hawks and business groups. Supporters of the current draft of the American Data Privacy and Protection Act will have their work cut out for them trying to appeal to both sets of critics during a House hearing Tuesday.

The ADPPA would for the most part preempt the state privacy laws that have been advanced in the absence of federal action but would leave some exceptions for rules covering a list of topics including civil rights, data breach notifications, and facial recognition technology.

"The American Data Privacy and Protection Act fails a central requirement of any good federal privacy law: to create a national privacy standard," Carl Szabo, vice president and general counsel of NetChoice, a tech-focused trade group that counts Amazon, Facebook, and Google among its members.

Sen. Brian Schatz, who has led several privacy bills in the Senate, albeit partisan ones, wrote a letter to the three lead sponsors earlier this month urging them to shift the burden of data privacy from consumers to companies by including a corporate duty of loyalty in the legislation.

Vuk Janosevic, CEO of the privacy software firm Blindnet, told The Hill that while it's a positive that there is a proposal at the federal level, the bill falls short on how many companies it applies to and relies too heavily on letting users opt out of data collection instead of having them opt-in.

"It's the first bipartisan bicameral comprehensive federal privacy bill that's been put out there, period," said Alex Brown, a partner at the law firm Alston & Bird that has been closely tracking privacy bills for the American Bar Association.

For Fun: 

June 16: San Diego Zoo welcomes 1st aardvark birth in years

An aardvark cub born at the San Diego Zoo is doing well and developing quickly, according to wildlife specialists. The female cub was born May 10 and will nurse from her mother, Zola, for about six months, the San Diego Zoo Wildlife Alliance said this week in announcing the zoo's first aardvark birth in nearly four decades.

"She is very active, and was using her sharp claws to dig like an adult aardvark, just hours after her birth," lead wildlife care specialist Cari Inserra said in the statement.

The long-eared, hairless cub has tripled her birth weight in just five weeks. She does not have a name yet and will remain out of view of zoo visitors for about two months as she bonds with her mother.

"We can't wait until we are able to introduce the cub to our Zoo guests, helping them learn more about this remarkable species," Inserra said.

They have strong front legs and long claws adapted to digging burrows where they spend daylight hours until emerging in the evenings to use their long, sticky tongues to slurp up ants and termites.

June 16: Fernanda: Giant Tortoise Believed Extinct Confirmed Alive In The Galapagos Islands

Anecdotes and rumors were "Tenuous at best," researchers told The Washington Post. So, a team of conservationists and explorers in 2019 were astonished by a discovery on the rugged island: a lone female giant tortoise. Although she was the first tortoise discovered on the island since the 1906 spotting, researchers were not sure she was of the same species - Chelonoidis phantasticus, or Fernandina Island tortoise - long thought to be extinct.

By sequencing her entire genome, and setting it next to the historical specimen collected in 1906, researchers this week confirmed that the tortoises, a century apart, were of the same long-considered-extinct lineage: The fantastic giant tortoise - "With a current known population size of a single individual." When Fernanda was first spotted in 2019, Wacho Tapia, Galápagos-based director of the Giant Tortoise Restoration Initiative, wrote that "The emotional high" he experienced in finding a live tortoise on the remote, seemingly uninhabitable island was "Indescribable."

Upon starting a five-day "Mega-expedition" of the difficult-to-explore island of Fernandina, Tapia tempered his expectations, writing that he knew the possibility of finding a tortoise was "Near-zero" given that no tortoise had been found on the island in 113 years.

She is now living at the giant tortoise breeding center of Galápagos National Park. Even if Fernanda is the last fantastic giant tortoise, the study's authors say that her genome sequencing is already helping them learn more about the evolution of giant tortoises.