U.S. Household Spending, Student Debt Forgiveness, and FEMA Aid

Economic News/Policy: 

Feb 19: Economy Week Ahead: U.S. Household Spending, Home Sales in Focus

Tuesday: S&P Global releases February business-activity surveys from around the world. The data firm’s January surveys showed that U.S. businesses reported further declines in activity, while the eurozone saw a modest pickup.

The National Association of Realtors reports sales of previously owned homes in January. Existing-home sales fell 17.8% in 2022, concluding the weakest year for sales activity since 2014. 

Wednesday: The Federal Reserve releases the minutes from its Jan. 31-Feb. 1 meeting, when central bankers voted to raise short-term interest rates by 0.25 percentage point. The minutes will provide more details on the discussions over the decision.

Thursday: The Labor Department reports the number of worker filings for unemployment benefits in the week ended Feb. 18. Initial jobless claims held nearly steady in the prior week and remained historically low.

The Commerce Department releases its second estimate of output by the U.S. economy in the fourth quarter. The economy grew at a solid 2.9% annual rate last quarter, capping a year of slower economic growth when compared with the previous year.

The Statistics Bureau of Japan releases annual inflation data through January. Core consumer prices in Japan rose 4% in December from a year earlier, the fastest pace since December 1981.

Friday: The Commerce Department releases figures on U.S. household spending and income in January. Consumer spending fell 0.2% in December from the prior month, the second consecutive monthly drop. More recently, U.S. retail sales, which capture part of consumer spending, jumped 3% in January. The department also releases its personal-consumption expenditures price index, a gauge of inflation closely watched by the Fed. The PCE price index rose 5% in December from a year earlier, down from the 5.5% rise in November.

The University of Michigan publishes its final reading of consumer sentiment for February. A reading earlier this month showed that sentiment improved somewhat, but remained subdued as concerns about the economy persisted.

The Commerce Department releases data on new home sales in January, which account for about 10% of the housing market.

Student Loan Forgiveness:

Feb 19: Section 230, student debt top divisive Supreme Court agenda

The Supreme Court begins a two-week argument session on Tuesday that includes divisive clashes over student debt forgiveness and a controversial liability shield known as Section 230 that Big Tech argues is fundamental to social media. 

The justices will begin the busy period by weighing the scope of Section 230 before hearing from the Biden administration the following week. Lawyers for the administration will be seeking to fend off challenges to block its plan to forgive up to $20,000 in student debt for qualifying borrowers.

The justices on Tuesday will hear Gonzalez v. Google, which could upend protections internet companies have had throughout the nearly two-decade rise of social media.

The plaintiffs, relatives of a victim who was among the more than 100 people killed in a series of attacks by Islamic State terrorists in Paris in November 2015, sued Google under federal anti-terrorism laws.

Sen. Chuck Grassley and some legal scholars argue taking Big Tech's position would let terrorism sympathizers off the hook, while other observers contend that holding the companies liable would lead foreign countries to reciprocate in their courts against the U.S. Student debt forgiveness.

The Biden administration will attempt to save its student debt forgiveness program on Feb. 28, when the Supreme Court will hear two challenges to the plan.

"Folks on Pell Grants were hit financially because of the pandemic. Seventy percent of Black college students receive Pell Grants. For many Black students, the saving will be significant in my debt relief plan, including wiping out their student debt completely. That's a real game-changer."

The student debt arguments are sandwiched by two lower-profile cases that week.

ICYMI: 

Feb 17: Ohio governor says FEMA will provide resources to East Palestine

The Federal Emergency Management Agency will deploy federal resources to the site of a train derailment in Ohio, Gov. Mike DeWine announced Friday evening after saying earlier this week that the agency had deemed the state ineligible.

"FEMA and the State of Ohio have been in constant contact regarding emergency operations in East Palestine. U.S. EPA and Ohio EPA have been working together since day one," DeWine said Friday night in a joint state with FEMA Regional Administrator Thomas Sivak. "Tomorrow, FEMA will supplement federal efforts by deploying a Senior Response Official along with a Regional Incident Management Assistance Team to support ongoing operations, including incident coordination and ongoing assessments of potential long-term recovery needs."

Earlier this week, DeWine said the federal agency had determined the town was not eligible for FEMA aid despite concerns about water and air quality, saying "Although FEMA is synonymous with disaster support, they're most typically involved with disasters where there is tremendous home or property damage" such as hurricanes or tornadoes.

DeWine initially ordered the evacuation of residents in the affected area, rescinding the order five days later.

Both of Ohio's senators, Sherrod Brown and J.D. Vance have separately urged DeWine to declare a disaster in the state, although Vance emphasized Thursday that such a declaration must not put the onus on the state and federal government rather than Norfolk Southern to be accountable for any damage.

The governor's statement did not clarify whether the resources FEMA is making available would include the specific aid the agency initially declined.

For Fun: 

Feb 21: Strange DNA Found In The Desert Offers Lessons In The Hunt For Mars Life

The Atacama Desert in Chile is just about the driest place on Earth. In spots, it looks a lot like Mars. But it’s not lifeless, even in the hyper-arid regions. Using state-of-the-art equipment to probe the desert rocks, researchers found bits of DNA from an intriguing mix of microbes.

Strikingly, 9 percent of the genetic fragments belong to organisms unknown to science, making them part of the “dark microbiome,” according to a report published Tuesday in the journal Nature Communications.

The research seems to bolster the long-term Mars exploration strategy of NASA and its partner, the European Space Agency. They are in the midst of a multistage mission called Mars Sample Return. If all goes as planned, samples of Martian soil obtained by NASA’s Perseverance rover — which just celebrated its second anniversary on Mars — will be hauled back to Earth sometime early in the next decade for scrutiny in high-containment laboratories.

If all goes as planned, samples of Martian soil obtained by NASA's Perseverance rover - which just celebrated its second anniversary on Mars - will be hauled back to Earth sometime early in the next decade for scrutiny in high-containment laboratories.

Scientists have never found an example of life beyond Earth, but a general assumption is that "Habitable" worlds will become inhabited - that life emerges, somehow, under the right conditions.

Conceivably, there is still cryptic life on Mars, although astrobiologists would be thrilled to find even a microfossil of something that lived billions of years ago.

NASA's Viking mission of 1976 carried experiments designed to detect life, and one offered an initially promising signal, but most scientists concluded that they'd landed on sterile soil.

All life on Earth comes from a common ancestor - so far as we know.

There has been speculation, notably from scientist and author Paul Davies, that life could have originated on Earth more than once and to this day there could be a "Shadow" biosphere that is simply too weird to fit into our definition of Earth life.